NJFFS Division A Section 2

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*** SECTION 2 FIRE DANGER IS MODERATE ***

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR W BERGEN/W PASSAIC COUNTIES    

423 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A TRANQUIL TODAY...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT.
SPOTTY RAIN CONTINUES SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THE NEW YORK CITY METRO ON EAST INTO
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. AFTER RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS INTO THIS EVENING...NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GUSTS TO 20 TO
30 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, ALL OF DIVISION A IS STILL IN THE "D0" CLASSIFICATION - ABNORMALLY DRY! 

U.S. Drought Monitor

DANGER_MODERATE.gif

  NW Bergen & W Passaic Counties
   Partly Cloudy  
Max Temp  53 Min RH  45% 
   Chance of Precip 00% PM Wind Lgt/Var
     KBDI as of October 25th -  312  Haines Index 4 Buildup 22
 
PRECIP TOTALS AT OAKLAND
August - 2.44"
September - 0.87"
October - 3.39" 
OCTOBER 29th- 0.04" 


 
CALCULATIONS DONE BY THE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM 
 

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT CAMPFIRE RESTRICTIONS

Regularly Scheduled Forecast Text Products

  • KBDI = 0 - 200: Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation.
  • KBDI = 200 - 400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity.
  • KBDI = 400 - 600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively.
  • KBDI = 600 - 800: Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.
  • Low

    Fuels do not ignite readily from small firebrands although a more intense heat source, such as lightning, may start fires in duff or punky wood. Fires in open cured grasslands may burn freely a few hours after rain, but woods fires spread slowly by creeping or smoldering, and burn in irregular fingers. There is little danger of spotting.

    Moderate
    Fires can start from most accidental causes, but with the exception of lightning fires in some areas, the number of starts is generally low. Fires in open cured grasslands will burn briskly and spread rapidly on windy days. Timber fires  spread slowly to moderately fast. The average fire is of moderate intensity, although heavy concentrations of fuel, especially draped fuel, may burn hot. Short-distance spotting may occur, but is not persistent. Fires are not likely to become serious and control is relatively easy.
    High
    All fine dead fuels ignite readily and fires start easily from most causes. Unattended brush and campfires are likely to escape. Fires spread rapidly and short-distance spotting is common. High-intensity burning may develop on slopes or in concentrations of fine fuels. Fires may become serious and their control difficult unless they are attacked successfully while small
    Very High

    Fires start easily from all causes and, immediately after ignition, spread rapidly and increase quickly in intensity. Spot fires are a constant danger. Fires burning in light fuels may quickly develop high intensity characteristics such as long-distance spotting and fire whirlwinds when they bum into heavier fuels.

    Extreme
    Fires start quickly, spread furiously, and burn intensely. All fires are potentially serious. Development into high intensity burning will usually be faster and occur from smaller fires than in the very high fire danger class. Direct attack is rarely possible and may be dangerous except immediately after ignition. Fires that develop headway in heavy slash or in conifer stands may be unmanageable while the extreme burning condition lasts. Under these conditions the only effective and safe control action is on the flanks until the weather changes or the fuel supply lessens




























    FIRE WEATHER WATCH

    A Fire Weather Watch is used to advise of the possible development of a red flag event in the near future. Usually fire danger is in the very high to extreme category. A Fire Weather Watch will normally be issued 12 to 24 hours in advance of the expected onset of severe fire weather conditions. The watch will be issued via an RFW product (i.e. RFWOKX). The product will contain a headline and the basis for the watch issuance. Fire Weather Watch information will be included in the affected areas of the daily routine Fire Weather Forecast. A Fire Weather Watch will be canceled via an RFW if subsequent information indicates that the conditions are no longer expected to develop.

    RED FLAG/FIRE WATCH CRITERIA

    Watches and Warnings(must meet all 3 or 4)

    During vegetation stage I or II (cured/transition - spring/fall)

    1)Winds sustained or frequently gusting above 25 mph.

    2) Relative Humidity less than 30%.

    3) Rainfall less than 1/4 of an inch during the previous 5 or more days.

    During vegetation stage III (green - summer)

    1)Winds sustained or frequently gusting above 25 mph.

    2) Relative Humidity less than 30%.

    3) Rainfall less than 1/4 of an inch during the previous 8 or more days.

    4) Fuels; Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI) above 300.






    RED FLAG WARNING

    A Red Flag Warning is issued to indicate the imminent danger of severe fire weather with a relatively high probability of occurrence. Usually the fire danger is in the very high to extreme category. A Red Flag Warning will normally be issued for potential severe fire weather events in less than 12 hours. A Red Flag Warning may or may not be preceded by a Fire Weather Watch. The warning will be issued via an RFW product and contain a headline and basis for the warning issuance. Red Flag Warning information will be included in the affected areas of the daily routine Fire Weather Forecast. A Red Flag Warning will be canceled via an RFW if subsequent information indicates that the conditions are no longer expected to develop.

    Haines Index
     
    (HI) Is a numerical value that indicates the potential for large wildfires to experience extreme fire behavior. The HI combines both the instability and dryness of the air by examining the lapse rate between two pressure levels in the atmosphere and the dryness of one of the pressure levels.
     
     
     
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    Haines Index
    Potential For Large Fire Growth
    2 or 3 Very Low
    4 Low
    5 Moderate
    6 High